Newsletters
- Quarterly
- MarketTrends
| Quarterly Newsletters
April 1, 2011 - June 30, 2011
The recovery continues to be feeble, but the likelihood of another contraction this year is improbable, although 2012 is not out of the question, as the economy is still highly susceptible to geopolitical and economic risks. The economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), will grow with 2.6% for 2011, with little or no indication of further improvement. This is primarily due to: geopolitical risks; small businesses inability to secure credit for growth; lower personal credit availability; further home price declines which threaten to diminish consumer spending; reduced, relatively speaking, government spending; growing local government problems; and last, but not least, a lack of consumer confidence. .... More...
January 1, 2011 - March 31, 2011
The recovery continues to be feeble, but the likelihood of another contraction this year is improbable. It is still highly susceptible to geopolitical and economic risks. The economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is still expected to grow with 3.0% for 2011, with little or no indication of further improvement. This is primarily due to: geopolitical risks; small businesses inability to secure credit for growth; .... More...
October 1, 2010 - December 31, 2010
The recovery is still feeble, but the likelihood of another contraction has greatly diminished; but is still highly susceptible to geopolitical and economic risk. The economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), could grow with 3.0% for 2011, compared to 2.9% for 2010, which is paltry compared to normal post-recession periods... More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
July 1, 2010 - September 30, 2010
The recovery is feeble at best and the likelihood of another contraction by the end of 2010 is increasing everyday our annualized GDP growth remains below 2% - growth below 2% is not sustainable ... More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
APRIL 1, 2010 - JUNE 30, 2010
The recovery is getting shakier and the likelihood of another contraction by Q3 of 2010 is currently increasing by the day, although, this likelihood of another contraction is currently masked by Europe’s financial crisis. Assuming we avoid another contraction ... More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
JANUARY 1, 2010 - MARCH 31, 2010
A continued economic recovery for 2010 is still shaky, but is still the most likely outcome, although Consumer Metrics’ Growth Index is signaling another contraction. In 2009, the economy shrunk by 2.4%, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but this would have been significantly bigger if not for... More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
October 1, 2009 - December 31, 2009
A continued economic recovery for 2010 is shaky, but is still the most likely outcome. Downward revisions to Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), due to weaker consumer spending and smaller replenishing of inventory than anticipated, has put a damper on the recovery. 2009 Q4 should show some improvement in GDP due to further inventory replenishment and the extension of the tax credit for homebuyers. This will most likely... More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
July 1, 2009 - September 30, 2009
An economic recovery for 2009 seems more likely with business replenishing their depleted inventory and an increase in auto production, i.e. a manufacturing recovery. This will most likely be short-term growth spurt with a lackluster growth for 2010, caused by low consumer spending due to rising unemployment and negligible wage growth. Overall, we expect 2009 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to fall by 2.5%, and 2010 to grow with 2.5%. More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
April 1, 2009 to June 30, 2009
The big question is still if 2009 will bring an economic recovery to the US. It is still possible, but as we have still not yet hit bottom, a recovery is probably not going to happen until Q4 of 2009 or Q1 of 2010. When the recovery does start, it will be slow, possibly lethargic with a potential for a double recession, with a modest 1% to 2% growth of GDP versus a +3% shrinkage of GDP for 2009. Although consumers may appear to be willing to spend a little more they are still weighted down by debt and are focused on de-leveraging, while business are continuing to take a wait and see attitude to toward capital investments waiting for the consumers to start spending. More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
January 1, 2009 to March 31, 2009
Will 2009 bring an economic recovery to the US? It is still possible, but as we have not yet hit bottom, a recovery is probably not going to happen until Q4 of 2009 or Q1 of 2010. The first half of 2009 will be tough with about a 6% contraction of the GDP in the first half, with a total contraction of 2.5% for 2009. Low interest rates, cheap oil, massive federal spending and addition of liquidity, and a glimmer of optimism will seek to outweigh housing, tight credit, declining exports, auto, the increasing deficit, and let us not forget the global economic weakness in general. More...
Please email us for free subscription at subscribe@carlfpetersen.com
|
